Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles With Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer produced no concrete results.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.

The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Carolyn Saunders
Carolyn Saunders

A tech historian and cybersecurity expert passionate about preserving and securing vintage computing systems.