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It simply cannot go on. It makes no rational sense that it persists. Yet, persist it does.

A Record-Chasing Triumph Against the Odds

Aston Villa entered Saturday's top-flight clash at Chelsea aiming for a historic record of 11 consecutive wins, matching runs set in 1897 and 1914. For the opening hour, this feat seemed highly unlikely, as the hosts dominated proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added several more. But, Chelsea have shown frailty when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa have cultivated a baffling knack of securing wins on the road from losing positions.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball ricocheting in off his shin and the post after his first effort was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he secured the decisive goal with a precise header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. The forward might feel a bit of luck was due, and there's no question the equalizing goal had a significant element of luck. At the moment, however, Lady Luck seems to be smiling on Villa.

The Numbers Of an Implausible Run

Nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a single goal. They have managed a clean sheet in only one of those games. Their underlying metrics have been better in just six of those encounters, and in two of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come from behind. This pattern seems unsustainable, but pundits have been claiming that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The central question is whether their outcomes will finally align with their displays or if their level of play can improve to justify the results.

This should not be sustainable, but everybody's been stating that for a while and Villa keep on winning.

A Core Trait: Belief

Coming from behind is not just a trait of the current campaign. Over the past three seasons, no team has won more points from losing positions than Villa's 54; Eighteen of those were secured this term, 50% more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have contributed nine goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

• Firstly, they possess a profound confidence that means no game ever feels beyond them. This is, to an extent, a virtuous cycle: the more they come from behind, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
• Second, Emery has proven exceptionally skilled at influencing games with his substitutions.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea won the xG battle 2.1 to 1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple change. Ollie Watkins replaced Malen, who had struggled with limited service. Suddenly, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's movement in behind created issues. Onana and Jadon Sancho also entered, strengthening the center and adding the flank presence they had eschewed earlier.

The Blues registered ten attempts to Villa's none before the substitutions; following them, Villa had 11 chances to Chelsea's 4. By the final whistle, Villa were in control and could easily have won more comfortably. Not for the first time, Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca seemed unable to respond as the game slipped away; the sense remains that he is better at implementing a game plan with time to prepare than adapting in the moment.

Moment of Magic

Villa have also developed a welcome habit of individuals producing moments of match-winning quality to alter games. Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him shifting the ball onto his right foot and curling a finish home has become a recurring theme. It was the winger who transformed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of defenders like Ezri Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. Right now, it's not always the whole side playing flawlessly, but enough individuals within it delivering to secure the victories.

The Road Ahead

Will they be able to keep going? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season approaches its halfway stage, they have to be considered as in the championship conversation, arguably more so than club world champions Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. The upcoming away fixture at Arsenal will be a major test of that claim. Villa beat Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only won the xG but posted an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.

Arsenal have assembled their own run of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being entirely convincing. Tuesday will be a challenge for both teams – and if Villa secure a twelfth game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to dismiss their title credentials.