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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.