Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.