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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.